适应性治理与气候变化：内蒙古草原案例分析与对策探讨

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.017

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

适应性治理通过边学边做,针对各地方的社会经济条件、自然生态系统、地方知识文化等基本特征,基于一个动态、自下而上和自组织的过程不断测试和修正制度安排与知识体系,形成一个旨在解决实际问题的循环过程。通过内蒙古3个地区案例的对比分析研究,基于对其气候变化风险和社会脆弱性的评估,发现其在气候变化影响下形成的不同程度的社会脆弱性正是源于不同的草原利用机制和基于此的社会合作机制。正是因为3个案例地的牧民有着不同的社会资本和社会记忆,所以他们面对极端天气导致的自然灾害时,采取了不同的应对方式,有的牧户可以依赖于社会资本移动牲畜来渡过难关,有的牧户则可以在嘎查范围内重启社会记忆,通过合理安排草场利用和移动牲畜提高自身的抗灾能力,而有的牧户则只能通过买草料独立抗灾。这样不同的结果有力证明了适应性治理在提升这些地区气候变化应对能力方面的必要性和可行性。在地区层面引入适应性治理,可以满足各利益相关方的需求,有利于自然、社会及管理的多学科协同,与“未来地球计划”的协同设计、协同实施和协同推广理念不谋而合,是“未来地球”思想在气候变化适应研究中的实践。

关键词: 适应性治理, 社会脆弱性, 恢复力, 草原保护, 社会记忆

Abstract:

Through the adaptive governance, by which institutional arrangements and ecological knowledge are tested and revised in a dynamic, bottom-up, ongoing, self-organized, learning by doing process, different systems including social-economic system, natural ecosystem and local knowledge and culture system should be considered into the process of decision-making. Comparing three cases in Inner Mongolia, this article evaluates their climate change risk and social vulnerability, and explores the reasons of different adaptation capacity to climate extreme events, and illustrates the possibility to apply adaptive governance to the endeavor of decreasing the local vulnerability. We found that different herders have different strategies for coping with natural disasters because they have different social capital and social memory. Some herders could move out their livestock from drought area by using their social capital; some herders could reorganize grassland use and livestock moving based on their social memory; but some herders could only buy more and more fodder and forage. This research showed that introducing adaptive governance at local level may meet the different requirements of different stakeholders to adapt climate change, promote disciplinary cooperation between natural, social and management sciences. Therefore, adaptive governance has the same view with “Future Earth” on the conceptions of “co-design, co-produce, co-deliver”, which can be developed as practical experiment in local adaptation to climate change.

Key words: Adaptive governance, Social vulnerability, Resilience, Rangeland conservation, Social memory

张倩,艾丽坤. 适应性治理与气候变化：内蒙古草原案例分析与对策探讨[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(4): 411-422.

Qian ZHANG,Li-Kun AI. Adaptive governance and climate change: case analysis of Inner Mongolia grassland and counterplan study[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(4): 411-422.

图/表 9

图1 3个案例的地理位置.

Fig. 1 Location of three cases.

表1 3个案例地的自然条件、人口和草场基本情况

Table 1 Natural conditions, population and grassland conditions of three cases

图2 1970—2016年3个案例地所在旗县分季节气温距平变化.

Fig. 2 Temperature deviation of four seasons of three cases (1970-2016).

图3 1970—2016年3个案例地所在旗县分季节降水距平变化.

Fig. 3 Precipitation deviation of four seasons of three cases (1970-2016).

表2 3个案例地所在地区的气候变化特征和自然灾害发生情况

Table 2 Climate change characters and natural disasters of three cases

表3 3个案例地应对气候变化的社会脆弱性

Table 3 Social vulnerability to climate change of three cases

表4 2006年巴彦塔拉嘎查28户牧民走敖特尔地点的相关信息表

Table 4 Information of aoter of 28 households sampled in BayantalaGacha

表5 岗更嘎查不同历史阶段中牲畜移动情况

Table 5 Livestock moving of GanggengGacha in different phases

图4 适应性治理的多层级管理框架

Fig. 4 Multi-level management framework of adaptive governance

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