气候变化研究进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (2): 201-209.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.006

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全球环境基金第七增资期政策分析与预测

陈兰1(), 王文涛2, 李亦欣1, 朱留财1   

  1. 1 环境保护部对外合作中心,北京 100035
    2 中国21世纪议程管理中心,北京 100038;
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-15 修回日期:2018-01-23 出版日期:2018-03-30 发布日期:2018-03-30
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:陈兰,女,工程师,18601041789@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    2014年国家社科基金年度项目“全球环境治理体系研究”(14BGJ011);中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目“‘十三五’国家应对气候变化科技与低碳行动接轨的规划研究”(2014026)

Analysis and prediction of the seventh resources replenishment of the Global Environment Facility

Lan CHEN1(), Wen-Tao WANG2, Yi-Xin LI1, Liu-Cai ZHU1   

  1. 1 Foreign Economic Cooperation Office, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100035, China
    2 The Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21, Beijing 100038, China;;
  • Received:2018-01-15 Revised:2018-01-23 Online:2018-03-30 Published:2018-03-30

摘要:

根据全球环境基金(GEF)已公布的改革方案和增资谈判进程,结合当前国际政治经济形势,分析预测了GEF第七增资期(2018年7月至2022年6月)资金规模与规划改革方向。预计GEF-7资金规模较大可能在41亿~44亿美元之间,比上期减少0~7.5%。同时,GEF改革将继续向实现全球环境效益最大化、降低新兴发展中国家受援资金量、提高对最不发达国家资金支持、吸引私营部门参与及完善治理结构等方向纵深推进。作为GEF最大受援国和发展捐资国,尽管中国在GEF-7仍将保持受援国地位,但受GEF政策改革影响,即使在GEF-7增资规模与上期持平的情景下,中国国别资金分配量预计也将在GEF-6的基础上下调至1.43亿~1.59亿美元,同时未来中国在GEF资金规划、项目设计、捐资规模等方面亦须做出相应调整。为不断提升与GEF合作水平及效果,当前阶段中国宜在密切跟踪并积极参与GEF-7增资谈判进程的基础上,统筹考虑、提前谋划、综合研究,推动GEF改革向符合中国及广大发展中国家利益的方向发展。

关键词: 全球环境基金, 第七增资期, 分析预测

Abstract:

Based on the seventh resources replenishment (GEF-7) negotiation process of Global Environment Facility (GEF) and current world economic and political situation, it is predicted that the programming envelope of the GEF-7 will be between US$ 4.1 billion and US$ 4.4 billion, with a decrease of 0?7.5% over GEF-6 programming level. Meanwhile, the GEF will further its reform in promoting global environmental benefits, lowering the resources available to the emerging developing countries, prioritizing the needs of the least developing countries, more actively engaging with private sectors and improving its operational efficiency and effectiveness. As the biggest recipient and donor developing country, China will remain its eligibility in GEF-7 while being deeply affected in terms of resources allocation, project programming and designing, as well as the scale of contributions. Even in the status quo replenishment scenario, China’s STAR allocation in GEF-7 is expected to be reduced to US$ 143 million ?159 million. At the current stage, China needs to closely follow and actively participate in the GEF-7 replenishment negotiations, take overall consideration and plan ahead so as to promote the GEF reform consisting with the interests of China and other developing countries.

Key words: Global Environment Facility (GEF), Seventh resources replenishment, Analysis and prediction

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