基于高空与地面观测的阿克苏河流域气候水文要素变化分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.035

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本研究基于地面和高空资料,分析了阿克苏河流域1960—2015年的气候和水文变化特征,并探讨了高空气候变量在径流反演中的作用。结果表明,在全球变化背景下,阿克苏河流域地表温度呈显著升高趋势,线性倾向率为0.18℃/10a（-0.09~0.43℃/10a);流域降水总体呈增加趋势,增加速率为10.42 mm/10a（2.23~21.11 mm/10a)。阿拉木图、伊宁和库车3个高空探测站的0℃层高度总体呈上升趋势。相对于1960—1989年,1990—2015年3个站的0℃层高度分别增加了88.9 m、29.4 m和7.2 m。联合使用地面气温、降水和高空0°层高度资料,能显著提高阿克苏河流域夏季流量反演效果。

关键词: 气候变化, 高空气候, 0℃层高度, 阿克苏河流域

Abstract:

Based on the ground and sounding meteorological data, the hydrological changes of the Aksu River Basin during 1960-2015 were analyzed, and the role of upper atmosphere climate in runoff reproducing was discussed. The results show that under the background of global warming, the surface air temperature in Aksu River Basin increased significantly with an rate of 0.18℃/10a (ranging from -0.09 to 0.43℃/10a), and the precipitation increased at a rate of 10.42 mm/10a (ranging from 2.23 to 21.11 mm/10a). For the climate at the upper atmosphere, the 0℃ level heights of Almaty, Yining and Kuqa generally increased, and the increase reached 88.9 m, 29.4 m and 7.2 m in 1990-2015 compared to those in 1960-1989, respectively. The combination of near surface air temperature and precipitation and upper 0℃ level heights can significantly improve the reproducing performance of summer runoff in the Aksu River Basin.

Key words: Climate change, Upper atmosphere climate, 0℃ level height, Aksu River Basin

王志成, 方功焕, 张辉, 李万江, 陈亚宁, 周洪华. 基于高空与地面观测的阿克苏河流域气候水文要素变化分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(1): 1-10.

Zhi-Cheng WANG, Gong-Huan FANG, Hui ZHANG, Wan-Jiang LI, Ya-Ning CHEN, Hong-Hua ZHOU. Analysis of hydrometeorological variations based on the sounding and near-surface observations in Aksu River Basin[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(1): 1-10.

图/表 8

图1 阿克苏河流域地形与气象水文站点分布及阿克苏河流域在中国的位置图

Fig. 1 Topographical conditions and meteorological and hydrological stations of the Aksu River Basin and its location in China

表1 阿克苏河流域气象水文站点信息

Table 1 Meteorological and hydrological stations in the Aksu River Basin

表2 1960—2015年阿克苏河流域地面气温和降水变化

Table 2 Annual and seasonal changes and trends of near-surface air temperature and precipitation in Aksu River Basin during 1960-2015

图2 1960—2015年阿拉木图、伊宁和库车探空站标准等压面大气温度变化

Fig. 2 Variation of temperature for different standard isobaric surfaces during 1960-2015 of Almaty, Yining and Kuqa sounding stations

图3 阿拉木图、伊宁和库车站的标准等压面大气温度季节变化1990—2015年和1960—1989 年平均

Fig. 3 Seasonal variations of temperature for different standard isobaric surfaces of the Almaty,Yining and Kuqa sounding stations (1990-2015 and 1960-1989 means)

图4 1960—2015年阿拉木图、伊宁和库车站0℃层高度6月、7月和8月的年际变化和季节变化（5—9月）

Fig. 4 Annual (only for June, August and September) and seasonal (from May to September) variations of 0℃ level height of Almaty, Yining and Kuqa sounding stations during 1960-2015

图5 1960—2015年阿克苏河流域托什干河（沙里桂兰克）和库玛拉克河（协合拉）流量的年际和季节变化

Fig. 5 Intra and inter annual variation of streamflow of the Kumalik River and the Toxgan River in the Aksu River Basin during 1960-2015

图6 阿克苏河两条支流河托什干河（沙里桂兰克）与库玛拉克河（协合拉水文站）6—8月实测流量与模拟流量

Fig. 6 Observed and simulated summer streamflows of the Toxgan River (Shaliguilanke) and the Kumalik Rvier (Xiehala hydrological station)

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