北京市能源系统气候变化脆弱性分析与适应建议

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.014

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (6): 614-622.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.014

北京市能源系统气候变化脆弱性分析与适应建议

陈莎¹, 向翩翩¹, 姜克隽², 王冀³

1 北京工业大学环境与能源工程学院区域大气复合污染北京市重点实验室, 北京 100124;
2 国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所, 北京 100038;
3 北京市气象局, 北京 100089

收稿日期:2017-01-20 修回日期:2017-03-30 出版日期:2017-11-30 发布日期:2017-11-30
作者简介:陈莎,女,副教授,chensha@bjut.edu.cn
基金资助:
北京市能源领域适应气候变化能力提升研究（ZHCKT14）

Analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptive Suggestions in Energy System in Beijing City

Chen Sha¹, Xiang Pianpian¹, Jiang Kejun², Wang Ji³

1 Key Laboratory of Regional Air Pollution in Beijing, College of Environment and Energy Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China;
2 Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China;
3 Beijing Meteorological Service, Beijing 100089, China

Received:2017-01-20 Revised:2017-03-30 Online:2017-11-30 Published:2017-11-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

1951-2014年，北京市年平均气温以0.37℃/10a的速度上升，且热岛效应强度和范围增大。随着北京城市化发展，气候变化给北京市能源系统带来的额外压力也趋于显著。本研究着重分析了气候变化条件下能源系统的脆弱性。研究结果表明，气候变化下北京市能源系统的脆弱性主要表现在高温天气条件下，电力需求负荷超过电力供应系统设计最大负荷；低温条件下，天然气供应短缺；极端天气给能源生产、能源供应和能源运输造成威胁。针对北京市能源系统的脆弱性，借鉴国际经验，提出了北京市能源系统提升气候变化适应能力的短期战略和长期战略，并分别从政策、技术和管理方面提出了短期战略的适应建议。

关键词: 能源系统, 气候变化, 脆弱性, 适应建议

Abstract:

The average annual temperature in Beijing city increased at the rate of 0.37℃ per 10 years, the intensity and range of heat island effect increased during 1951-2014. With the development of economy and society, extra pressure that climate change brings to energy supply system trends to be significant. This study focuses on the vulnerability of energy system under climate change. The vulnerabilities of climate change in the energy sector in Beijing are that electric load of power demand is over maximum load designed for power supply system under high temperature; under the condition of low temperature, natural gas supply is short; energy production, energy supply and energy transport are threatened by extreme weather. According to the vulnerabilities of the energy system of Beijing, combined with the international advanced experience, the key measures and suggestions were put forward in order to enhance the climate change adaptability of energy system in Beijing.

Key words: energy system, climate change, vulnerability, adaptive suggestions

陈莎, 向翩翩, 姜克隽, 王冀. 北京市能源系统气候变化脆弱性分析与适应建议[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2017, 13(6): 614-622.

Chen Sha, Xiang Pianpian, Jiang Kejun, Wang Ji. Analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptive Suggestions in Energy System in Beijing City[J]. Climate Change Research, 2017, 13(6): 614-622.

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北京市能源系统气候变化脆弱性分析与适应建议

Analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptive Suggestions in Energy System in Beijing City

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