气候变化研究进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (4): 366-374.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.222

• 气候变化影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

兰州市气温对脑卒中发病的滞后效应研究

董继元1,陈永聪1,张本忠1,周骥2,王式功3   

  1. 1 兰州大学公共卫生学院,兰州 730000;
    2 上海市气象与健康重点实验室,上海 200030;
    3 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都 610225
  • 收稿日期:2016-11-07 修回日期:2017-02-25 出版日期:2017-07-30 发布日期:2017-07-30
  • 通讯作者: 董继元 E-mail:yuiopdongjiyuan@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    上海市气象与健康重点实验室开放基金项目;2015年度兰州大学“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目

Distributed Lag Effects in the Relationship Between Daily Mean Temperature and the Incidence of Stroke in Lanzhou

Dong Jiyuan1, Chen Yongcong1, Zhang Benzhong1, Zhou Ji2, Wang Shigong3   

  1. 1 School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
    2 Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai 200030, China
    3 College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China
  • Received:2016-11-07 Revised:2017-02-25 Online:2017-07-30 Published:2017-07-30

摘要:

通过收集兰州市2010—2013年每日脑卒中发病资料,结合同一时间段的气象资料,利用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温与人群脑卒中发病的关联性,分析不同气温和不同滞后天数对脑卒中发病可能的影响。结果表明脑卒中发病与气象因素关系密切,气象因素与脑卒中病例数据的相关分析表明兰州市脑卒中每日发病人数与气温、气压和相对湿度均存在相关性,气温在不同滞后日与脑卒中的关联呈非线性,不同类型脑卒中与气温的关联强度存在差异。对于脑出血患者而言,低温在当天就表现出危害效应,随后发病风险不断增加,滞后2~3 d时达到最大,可持续至低温发生后的第30天。脑梗塞的发病过程与脑出血存在一定差异,高温和低温均会引起发病风险增大,并且气温效应在当天就能发生,在滞后3~5 d内最强。低温对女性或者19~64岁者的影响更大,而高温对≥65岁者的影响更大;低温对不同类型脑卒中发病均有影响,高温仅对缺血性脑卒中发病有影响。气温对不同年龄、性别人群的脑卒中发病影响存在差异,对不同类型的脑卒中发病影响也有所不同。气温是作为外因通过影响机体功能而致人发病的。

关键词: 气象因素, 脑卒中, 滞后效应, 兰州市

Abstract:

Based on the daily data on stroke morbidity and meteorological data in Lanzhou during 2010-2013, the association between temperature and the morbidity of stroke among the population was addressed using the distributed lag non-linear model, and the possible impacts of different temperature and different lag days on stroke morbidity were analyzed. The results show a close association between stroke morbidity and the meteorological factors. Analysis of correlation between the meteorological factors and patient characteristics of stroke show the daily number of stroke cases is correlated with temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity. Temperature presented non-linear association with stroke over different lag days. Different types of stroke vary in their strength of association with temperature. For patients with cerebral hemorrhage, low temperature would demonstrate hazardous effect, the risk of morbidity would constantly rise with the increasing lag days before reaching the peak at 2?3 lag days, and could persist through 30 days after the occurrence of low temperature. The course of cerebral infraction presented certain differences from that of cerebral hemorrhage. Both high and low temperature could increase the risk of morbidity, and the temperature effect would occur on the same day and reach the peak within 3?5 lag days. Low temperature had greater impacts on women or those aged 19?64 years, while high temperature had greater impacts on those ≥65 years old. Low temperature had impacts on morbidity of various types of stroke, while high temperature only had impacts on morbidity of ischemic stroke. The impacts of temperature on stroke morbidity vary in different age groups and gender, and in different types of stroke. Temperature acts as an external etiological factor by affecting the organism’s functions.

Key words: meteorological factors, stroke, lag effects, Lanzhou city

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