气候变化研究进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (5): 413-421.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.030

• 气候系统变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1980—2014年中国台风大风和台风极端大风的变化

陆 逸1,2,朱伟军1,任福民2,王 昕3   

  1. 1 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京 210044;
    2 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081;
    3 吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院,长春 130012
  • 收稿日期:2016-02-19 修回日期:2016-03-18 出版日期:2016-09-30 发布日期:2016-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 朱伟军 E-mail:weijun@nuist.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目;科技部科技支撑项目;江苏高校优势学科建设工程

Changes of Tropical Cyclone High Winds and Extreme Winds During 1980-2014 over China

Lu Yi1, 2, Zhu Weijun1, Ren Fumin2, Wang Xin3   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    2 State key Laboratory of Severe Weather/Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
    3 College of Computer Science and Technology, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
  • Received:2016-02-19 Revised:2016-03-18 Online:2016-09-30 Published:2016-09-30

摘要:

基于1980—2014中国670站日最大风速资料,利用改进的客观天气图分析法(OSAT)分离出中国陆地的台风大风(6级以上,≥10.8 m/s),并定义了台风极端大风,进而研究了台风大风和台风极端大风的变化特征。分析表明:在地理分布上,台风大风年均日数和占比均自海岸线向内陆迅速减小,在海南、华南和东南沿海省份以及江苏南部,台风大风占比一般为30%~70%;台风极端大风年均日数大值主要分布在沿海省市(除河北和天津),特别是华东和华南沿海,局部地区台风极端大风日数占比达100%。从季节变化看,在台风活跃的7—9月,中国台风极端大风频次总体上超过了季风极端大风;就全国而言,当阈值从最低值(11.5 m/s)提升至12级(32.7 m/s)时,台风极端大风频数占比则从12%急剧攀升至77%。1980—2014年,中国台风大风和台风极端大风年日数均显著减少,而台风极端大风年平均强度增强;这期间引起中国台风大风和台风极端大风的台风频数均显著减少,但引起台风极端大风的台风在生命期和影响期的平均强度均显著增强,这可能是上述显著变化特征的主要原因。

关键词: 台风大风, 台风极端大风, OSAT

Abstract:

According to the observed daily maximum wind speed data of 670 stations over the mainland of China during 1980-2014, tropical cyclone high winds (TCHW) (above the 6th grade, wind speed at least 10.8 m/s) are partitioned by the method of improved Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT). After defining tropical cyclone extreme winds (TCEW), changes of TCHW and TCEW over China are studied in this study. Results are as follows. For geographical distribution, annual mean TCHW days and its proportion decrease quickly from the coastline to inland, with proportion values of 30%-70% over Hainan, coastal provinces in South China and Southeast China and southern Jiangsu. Meanwhile, TCEW mainly appear in coastal provinces (except Tianjin and Hebei provinces), especially over coastal areas in East China and South China with proportion values reaching 100% at locations. For seasonal variation, average frequency of TCEW is more than monsoon’s extreme winds from July to September. For the whole China mainland, when wind speed threshold change from the minimum threshold (11.5 m/s) to the 12th grade (wind speed at least 32.7 m/s), the occupation of TCEW increases sharply from 12% to 77%. During 1980-2014, days of TCHW and TCEW both decrease significantly whereas average intensity of TCEW increases, which may be associated with the significant downward trend of influencing TC frequencies for TCEW and the significant upward trend of average intensity of influencing TC for TCEW during TC life and the impacting period.

Key words: tropical cyclone high winds, tropical cyclone extreme winds, Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT)

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